The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has dismissed a report alleging that the country lost ₦8.41tn to oil theft, describing it as misleading and lacking context.
In a statement signed by its Head of Media and Strategic Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, on Wednesday, the commission said the report titled “N8.41tn oil theft drains economy, fuels investors’ doubts” was based on a misinterpretation of crude loss data released in line with the Petroleum Industry Act 2021.
NUPRC recalled that on September 11, 2025, it announced that daily crude oil losses had dropped to 9,600 barrels per day, the lowest level since 2009, a development that was widely and accurately reported.
The commission noted that the latest National Bureau of Statistics data, which showed a 4.23 per cent economic growth driven partly by oil output, validated its progress in tackling theft.
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“Crude oil losses have been on a downward trend due to collaborative efforts between the NUPRC, the Office of the National Security Adviser, the military, operators, and other stakeholders.
“This partnership, through kinetic and non-kinetic means, reduced theft from 102,900 barrels per day in 2021, when the commission was established, to the current 9,600 barrels per day, representing over a 90 per cent reduction,” the statement read.
It also faulted the figures presented in the report, stressing that the alleged ₦8.41tn loss was inflated by applying an exchange rate of ₦1,500/$1 retrospectively from 2021 to 2025, when in fact the official rate was below ₦430/$1 and averaged under ₦600/$1 until mid-2023.
“The methodology adopted was fundamentally flawed as it ignored operational realities, crude oil price trends, and exchange rate mechanisms,” NUPRC added.
The regulator emphasised that Nigeria continues to meet its OPEC quota, thanks to initiatives such as Project 1 Million Barrels, metering audits, restoration of shut-in strings, improved rig counts, facility uptime, and alternative crude evacuation systems.
It further disclosed that the country now has the technical capacity to produce over two million barrels per day, with industry stakeholders working to fully unlock the sector’s potential.
NUPRC also criticised the report for failing the “integrity test”, noting that the author did not attempt to seek clarification from the commission in line with the principles of fairness and balanced reporting.
The commission stated: “Nigeria has continued to meet its OPEC quota due to the Commission’s initiatives and working collaboratively with industry stakeholders to sustain and grow productions. Such initiatives include: the project 1 million barrels, implementation of the metering audit, restoration of shut-in strings and increased rig counts, facility uptime, creation of alternative crude evacuation mechanism etc.
“Furthermore, Nigeria now has the technical capacity to produce above two million barrels daily. The Commission is galvanizing Industry stakeholders – Operators, service providers (local and international), rig owners, off-takers, and financiers – in order to fully unlock the potential, riding on the improved operating environment and social inclusion in operating areas”
