BY HENRIETTA IGHOMRORE
It is approximately six months till the next COP 29 scheduled for 11th – 22nd November in Baku, Azerbaijan, where World leaders and policymakers will gather once again to renew commitments towards the just energy transition. Nigeria has made bold commitments and, as such, must take stock of the progress made across the energy value chain since the Country’s participation at the last COP 28 held in Dubai UAE.As with other participating countries, several pledges and commitments were made to decarbonize the oil and gas sectors and to accelerate the integration of renewables and critical minerals for the socio-economic development of the Country. The President committed to reducing methane emissions in the oil and gas sector (I believe it also includes mitigating methane leaks from gas pipeline ruptures and vandalization) and accelerating the growth of renewables in the energy mix. These commitments are commendable; however, a holistic approach encompassing the electricity, agriculture, and transport sectors is essential to catalyse progress and achieve meaningful change.
Nigeria’s current pledge to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) is a 20% unconditional reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) below the business-as-usual emissions scenario by 2030 and a 47% conditional target of GHG emission reduction below 2018 emissions levels contingent on international support.
While these conditions are commendable, the underlying question is whether the Country will stay idle, anticipating international support while climate impacts are exacerbated. Since the start of the year, the Country has faced severe climate change impacts ranging from extreme heat, food and water shortages, and health risks. The perception that climate change impacts are distant and disconnected from the reality of many Nigerians is indeed worrisome.
It poses significant challenges to climate action and adaptation efforts, even at the National level. This disconnect is not unconnected to the economic hardship faced by many and the lack of a coordinated national approach to addressing climate change impacts in the Country. It is true that insecurity severely affects investment in agriculture, especially in the northern region and many rural communities in the southern region. Nonetheless, the low yields and unpredictable weather patterns can be directly linked to climate change impacts.
Early in February, an extreme heatwave flowed through the Sahel region and moved across many African countries, including Nigeria and her immediate neighbours. No country is insulated from climate change impacts. Thus, we must adopt and implement policies to safeguard lives and properties and develop the economy, every infrastructure built in the country may be climate-proof including the proposed coastal road. Addressing the impacts of climate change in Nigeria requires prioritizing three sectors: electricity, agriculture, and transportation. Nigeria’s electricity grid distributed capacity hovers around 5,500 MW despite trillions of investments and multiple reforms year after year. The Nigeria electricity sector is a complex paradox; firstly, the sector desperately needs accurate DATA! Designing policies based on unreliable data makes it impossible to achieve meaningful development. Moreover, data-driven approaches enable policymakers to monitor the effectiveness of policy interventions, track progress toward set targets, and hold relevant agencies accountable for their action or inaction. Decarbonizing the electricity sector calls for an outright ban on fossil fuel-powered generating sets; no nation can advance while sustaining a detrimental industry that detracts from and redirects investment away from sustainable electricity provision. Nigeria is Africa’s highest importer of fossil fuel-powered generators and one of the world’s top.
The government should implement an environmental policy that allows only solar or battery-powered inverters into the Country so as to curtail CO2 emissions and augment the current grid supply. Without delving into the nitty gritty of the recent electricity tariff hike and the impasse with consumers, this may be a good time for utilities to make public the line component of the tariff model so consumers can interrogate the cost components driving the numbers.
Beyond the push for a cost-reflective tariff is the need to focus on “prudently incurred” cost of electricity; the pricing model is fraught with indiscretions that should be addressed to ensure fairness and cost-effectiveness. This cycle may keep repeating itself until such a time when the process of tariff setting and cost optimization becomes transparent and properly aligned to a sustainable business model. Another challenge in the sector is the dilemma of contract management, which at the moment incentivizes idle capacity at the expense of end-users; it is eight years since the commencement of the transitional electricity market, and by now, power purchase agreements should be fully optimized to eliminate payments, for idle capacity as well minimizing government contingent liabilities. The solution to the nation’s electricity dilemma is challenging yet surmountable, demanding robust political determination, strengthened regulatory frameworks, and enhanced corporate governance. Delving into a comprehensive solution for the electricity sector requires a multifaceted approach that addresses the underlying challenges from generation to distribution. While the generation segment has been the most progressive, the transmission and distribution require urgent intervention.
We can liken the situation to a group of passengers at the bus stop waiting to move from point A to Point B; if what is available is a Keke NAPEP (tricycle), then only a maximum of four passengers will be wheeled at a time. Still, if a coaster bus arrives, a larger number of the passengers will be wheeled at a time. Prioritizing transmission seems the most plausible; transmission must be aligned with existing and future generation capacity. Suppose the government is committed to scaling up renewables for grid-distributed electricity.
In that case, the focus should be expanding transmission infrastructure, integrating innovative technologies, and enhancing grid reliability and resilience. Another recommendation for accelerating energy development is to align energy access initiatives with economic development. While the FG must be commended for the many successes achieved in the deployment of several off-grid renewable energy projects, there is an urgent need to link projects to economic development targets to make them sustainable in the long term. Many of these projects come at a huge cost to the Country, hence the need to empower enterprises to map out their deployment as economies thrive on energy for growth and development.
Moving on to the agriculture sector, where the climate change impacts are equally as severe, we must recall that for the first time since the 4th Republic, there was a massive protest and nationwide outcry for food scarcity, which saw food inflation surging up to 35.41% in January 2021. Farmlands in the north face the devastating impacts of extreme heat, droughts, and the spread of pests and diseases. The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported that 26.5 million Nigerians are at risk of hunger between June – August 2024, with Sokoto, Borno, Zamfara, and the FCT at higher risk. Only recently has the Minister of Water Resources sounded an alarm on impending flood in 31 federation states between April and November 2024. This calls for an urgent climate resilience action channeled towards infrastructure development, promoting sustainable land use practices, and strengthening disaster risk management systems as critical steps towards building resilience and safeguarding vulnerable communities from the impacts of climate change.
If advanced countries such as the UAE can experience a devastating storm leading to high-level rainfalls, which resulted in 18 deaths in Oman and four deaths in Dubai, the loss at the Dubai Airport is estimated at $850 million. The FG must act fast to forestall any repeat of the devastating effect of the 2022 flood, which saw over 1.4 million Nigerians displaced, 600 deaths, and several farmlands subsumed under the flood. A coordinated approach by all tiers of government to address climate change impact is critical to safeguarding human lives and ensuring socio-economic development.
In conclusion, the transportation sector might be Nigeria’s second highest carbon emitter next to the electricity sector (when fossil-fuelled generator sets are combined with grid generation). Tailpipe emissions are exceptionally high in Nigeria, especially in cities like Lagos, Port Harcourt, and Onitsha, where there is an active influx of trailers and public transport. These cities are usually covered with black carbon, which results in severe air pollution and health risks. The compliance with tailpipe emissions in Nigeria is relatively low, which may be attributed to inadequate technologies and insufficient manpower to enforce and monitor compliance. The Ministry of Environment, through its Environmental Protection Agency, should collaborate with various federal and state agencies to implement tailpipe emissions standards in the transport sector as well as the use of scrubbers (EGSC – exhaust gas cleaning systems to curtail) emissions. From the last COP 28, there was a consensus to adopt natural gas as a transition fuel; this presents a substantial economic advantage and opportunities for Nigeria if harnessed adequately in a timely and efficient manner. Nigeria has a proven natural gas reserve of 206.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), making it the 9th largest in the world; this contributes to 70% of its grid-generated electricity. While it is expensive to consider CNG solutions for the transport sector with current economic realities, this is a more feasible solution for the Country than adopting electric vehicles due to its electricity shortage.
There is so much to unpack within the energy transition, but the urgency and necessity of a national coordinated plan to address the various sectors impacted by climate change cannot be overstated. We want to avoid a repeat of stranded assets like the nation’s vast coal deposit, which can no longer be tapped or harnessed.
As the Country prepares to attend the next COP 29, it is time to embark on a stock-taking and review session; by now, it must be evident that there is no easy funding on the international scene, and available financing is very costly except when competitively negotiated with accurate data. In summary, the energy transition offers Nigeria the opportunity to transition into a sustainable and renewable energy future, bypassing costly traditional fossil fuel dependencies and embracing innovative and cheaper renewable solutions.
The country can also implement policies on effective resource management that encourage local processing into semi-products before exports, learning from the lessons of the oil era.
The President’s bold leadership in advocating for climate change partnership and fostering multi-stakeholder collaboration is commendable. Therefore, a nationally coordinated approach is crucial to prioritize climate action in national policies and strategies. With the right approach, Nigeria can position itself as a global leader in climate resilience and sustainability.
Henrietta Ighomrore is Public Service Scholar and a Masters in International Public Policy Student at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies Washington DC, USA.
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